Mike Maharry
The Idaho Statesman
Idaho’s economy and that of the nation will continue to grow in 2004, Wells Fargo Bank officials told a gathering of Boise business leaders Wednesday. “After three very lean years, the economy is poised for a significant and sustained business expansion,” said Spencer Eccles, chairman of Wells Fargo’s Intermountain Banking Region.

Eccles and two other bank officials — Sterling K. Jenson, senior managing director of Wells Capital Management, and Kelly K. Matthews, executive vice president and economist for the Intermountain Region — spoke at the 36th annual Wells Fargo Economic Forecast at the Boise Centre on The Grove.

Here’s what they had to say about economic trends for 2004:

EMPLOYMENT
The U.S. unemployment rate for 2004 should average 5.5 to 6 percent, Jenson said, down slightly from the 6 percent average expected when final 2003 figures are calculated. Idaho should see 8,575 new non-agricultural jobs created this year, with unemployment averaging 5 percent, according to Matthews.

INFLATION
Inflation will remain in check, Jenson said, rising between 1.75 and 2.5 percent this year, compared to an estimated 2.4 percent in 2003.

TOTAL CONSTRUCTION
Like the single-family home segment, total building activity should drop 10.6 percent this year, according to Matthews. But construction valued at $2.1 billion for the year would still exceed 2002´s total value of just over $2 billion.

HOME BUILDING
Matthews expects 1,200 fewer single-family building permits to be issued this year, compared to the 10,200 issued in 2003. That´s a drop of 11.8 percent from 2003, but still above 2002´s total.

VEHICLE UNIT SALES
Matthews expects incentive programs to continue throughout 2004, leading to a 1.5 percent increase in total vehicle sales in Idaho, to a total of 161,640.

RETAIL SALES
Idaho consumers will increase their spending this year to $11.8 billion for taxable goods, for an increase of 3.5 percent over 2003.